In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Their concerns are real. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Telegram Telegram Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. It also backed Gov. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. our Gitlab account where you can Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. . How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. (The highest value being again 66.1%). Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Until this year. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. . If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). University of Denver, 2. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. i.e. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. All other 21 counties voted Republican. Sumter County, . New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. It's true that the report first showed Biden at 477 counties andTrump at 2,497 counties, though ithas since been updated to showBiden at 509 andTrump at 2,547. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. (Sorry, not sorry.) In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Not anymore. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Their emotions and decision making process are real. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. We welcome any suggestions and content contibutions with credible references that help others understand the key election integrity issues. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. (subject to censorship). Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. They're just facts about the vote. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. Putting names to archive photos, The children left behind in Cuba's mass exodus, In photos: India's disappearing single-screen cinemas. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. In communities . ), voted Democrat again in 2020? 10. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. Republicans have paid some attention. "They followed through the whole four years. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Yes, another Hillsborough! Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. These are the bellwether counties. Outstanding. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. What are your thoughts on this article? Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. Ohio (18 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Watauga has gone for. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). Website Updates Paused According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. What, if anything, did we miss? This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Twitter Twitter The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Yet Donald Trump received 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 -- and lost. But it's also not unprecedented. With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Just how big is it? It gets a lot more interesting. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Joe Biden (631) Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. This county voted with the popular vote each time. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. Not a bad streak. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Nobody forgot about politics.". Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. Here's why. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . 5. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". 7. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. It's happened before. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Now, Democrats have to drive up the margin in this populous, central North Carolina county. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout.
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